What the Bubonic Plague Can Still Teach Us About Civilization Collapse

From 1347 to 1353, the Bubonic Plague, more commonly referred to as the Black Death, wracked the continent of Europe. It was a time of misery and suffering as almost half of Europe’s population succumbed to the disease, sending shockwaves throughout the continent and forcing drastic socio-economic upheaval that rearranged the status quo and led to a questioning of everything that had been believed.

Its effects, however, are not locked into the past, and much can be learned from what happened and how it affected society. This article examines the Bubonic Plague and the impacts of a pandemic on the socio-economic fabric of civilization, both now and then.

Bubonic plague is caused by a bacterium, Yersinia pestis, which is transmitted by fleas found on rats. Once a human is infected, the plague can be transmitted through the air, generally through coughing and sneezing.

It is thought to have been introduced to Europe by the Mongols during the Siege of Kaffa on the Crimean Peninsula. Themselves suffering from the plague, they catapulted infected corpses into the Genoese city, and ships traveling to and from the port carried the disease to various other ports in the Mediterranean. From there, it spread inland and caused devastation. Urban areas were particularly hard hit, and entire communities were wiped out. It is thought that between 25 and 50 million people died in Europe as a result, representing around 50 percent of Europe’s population at the time.

The initial reaction to the plague was fear and panic. People fled, often abandoning their families and their jobs. The societal structure of Europe was put under pressure, unable to withstand the speed and ferocity with which the disease spread and infected its victims.

A House of Cards

Much like it is today, society was an intricate web of interconnectivity. Disruptions to one part of it can have massive effects on other parts. Movement between areas was part of life as people conducted trade, pilgrims went on pilgrimages, and troops moved from place to place. Whatever communicable diseases they had, they took with them.

Furthermore, many places in Europe were perfect breeding grounds for the disease to spread. European cities were unsanitary and often overpopulated. Buckets of human waste were emptied onto streets filled with scores of busy people and domesticated cattle. With the addition of wet, and sometimes humid weather, the disease found little difficulty in spreading, and was carried far and wide as people moved between towns and cities.

The Black Death reached Sicily in October 1347 and France in November 1347. In the following year, the plague was evident throughout southern France as well as Rouen and Paris. The northern parts of Italy and Spain were also hit, while the port city of Bristol in England is thought to have been infected in the summer of 1348. From there, the plague spread to London in September.

The plague then spread northwards, infecting all of England and Wales as well as Ireland. At this point, the Scots took the opportunity to raid Durham. It is suggested that this action could have been the vector for the plague spreading to Scotland. Whatever the case, the disease spread northwards, taking hold in northern Europe and spreading northeastwards.

The perceived strength of the continent’s society and economy was put to the test and collapsed quickly under the weight of such an immense tragedy. The collapse, however, was not the end of society. People adapted, and society recovered, albeit with major changes.

The collapse showed that European society was not as hardy as it was perceived to be. The plague forced much of the continent’s activities to grind to a halt, as people scrambled to make sense of what was happening.

The interpretations and responses to what was happening were varied. Many turned to religion, and either questioned it with angry or saddened skepticism, or became even more fervent in their religious convictions. Many believed that the bubonic plague was a punishment from God. Religious sects of people called flagellants gained huge popularity during the years of the Black Death. They believed in publicly whipping themselves as a way to atone for their sins.

The medical community was severely put to the test, as medical knowledge at the time did not understand germ theory and vectors for transmission. There were confusing theories and harmful treatments, as well as fear and panic. Many doctors fled the urban areas, overwhelmed by the responsibility of treating the hordes of dying patients. Priests were also gripped by fear, and some refused to administer last rites to those infected.

In the confusion brought about by the plague, people looked to apportion blame on minorities and misunderstood groups of people. Jews and Romani became targets for attack, as well as lepers. Without reasonable evidence, minorities were blamed for spreading the plague.

While the urban areas were the hardest hit, those who fled the cities were still in significant danger. The bubonic plague also affected horses, cattle, pigs, and chickens. These animals often did not show clinical signs of the disease, but it is theorized that they could transmit it to nearby humans. The primary vectors, however, were rats and their fleas, as well as other human beings.

What this indicates is that under the threat of such dire developments, confusion and uncertainty are a given. People respond with many emotions, including anger and despair, and are quick to cast blame. This was true in the Middle Ages, and still true today.

The massive death toll led to a major transformation of Europe’s economic systems. Feudalism, which had been an established system for hundreds of years, took strain from the massive reduction in the workforce. Before the Black Death, wages were low due to overpopulation, but as the workforce reduced, laborers had more tools and land to work with, thus becoming more productive as individuals. As such, they could demand more for their services, and servile peasants were able to bargain for better conditions. Desperate for labor, the lords had little choice but to accede to demands from the peasantry.

In the years that followed, lords found themselves in diminished circumstances, and the sense of the traditional hierarchy was challenged. Many peasants were able to become property owners. Fearing the changing social fabric, governments took conservative measures and attempted to enact price controls on wages. This caused pushback from the peasants, and the ruling lords faced the prospect of revolt.

The reduced size of the workforce and the increased wages also caused a shift in agriculture. Sheep farming was less intensive than grain farming and required fewer laborers, and as such, it became a pragmatic alternative. Nevertheless, reduced production and loss of life disrupted trade across the continent, as well as long-distance trade routes to and from the east.

Ultimately, the Black Death created a series of events that eventually led to much better living conditions for the lower classes, which can be considered a foundation for the rise of the middle class. It also resulted in a challenge to autocratic power as governments were pressured to maintain pre-existing hierarchies, and were threatened by a more powerful working class.

The bubonic plague led to massive reconfigurations within the societal fabric across Europe. Of note is the role of the Church, which featured significantly in the day-to-day lives of Medieval Europe. As the horror of the Black Death unfolded, many questioned their confidence in the Church. While it seems faith in Christianity endured, the consequence was a loss of respect for the religious institutions that had guided Europeans for centuries.

Of course, the people of the church were affected too. Clergymen died and were replaced by less experienced members. Meanwhile, heretical movements such as the flagellants sprang up, in flagrant violation of the Church’s authority.

While many people turned towards God, there were many who became nihilistic and embraced a hedonistic lifestyle. Violence and debauchery increased. The birth rate also increased, but this did little to offset the effect on the population from the massive mortality rate inflicted by the plague. Although the initial wave abated in the early 1350s, there were successive, less deadly waves in the decades that followed.

Across Europe, children were orphaned, and the marriage rate increased as men and women sought company and solace after the death of their loved ones. In many instances, husbands and fathers were the main or only source of income for a family, and the loss of such a figure generated financial challenges for widows and their children.

The Black Death also had a profound effect on arts and culture. Morbid themes became far more common, and indeed the norm after 1350, reflecting the changing worldview of society at the time. The “danse macabre” or the “dance of death” became a popular theme in the arts. It depicted dancing skeletons choosing victims from all walks of life, mimicking the plague’s lack of discrimination.

Life after the Black Death, however, wasn’t all doom and gloom. For the lower classes, at least, the situation in the decades following the Black Death was an improvement. The price of land decreased, while peasants’ wages increased, and their chances for social mobility improved. Serfdom almost completely disappeared. These changes, however, weren’t immediate, and there were significant pushes back and forth, as the nobility and the peasantry readjusted their relationship.

The Black Death was a major catalyst for societal change. Society didn’t completely collapse, but underwent huge shifts in power dynamics. From a social perspective, the disaster was a traumatic event that left an indelible mark on European culture as a whole, and this is reflected in the art that was produced at the time. These novel depictions could be seen as a mass coping mechanism for dealing with the horror.

It is believed that the Black Death killed somewhere in the region of up to 100 million people across Eurasia and North Africa. Some estimates even put it as high as 200 million. To scale it up to a modern context, it would be roughly the equivalent of 1 to 2 billion people today (possibly even more). Numbers are difficult to define and determine in this context because of the lack of records from the time period, as well as the doubt thrown on various epidemics as to whether they were indeed bubonic plague.

While the exact effects of a pandemic on this scale are hard to quantify, it is reasonable to assume the general socio-economic and cultural effects would be the same. Established systems would collapse, and the labor force would gain more bargaining power. Confidence in existing structures would also decline, and worldviews would be altered.

Centuries of medical progress have, however, mitigated much of the danger. COVID-19, while a pandemic of major concern, was nowhere near as deadly as the Black Death, and in most cases, governmental safety measures enacted were successful in containing the disease. That is not to say, however, that a deadlier pandemic could not be around the corner.

Were this to become a reality, society would undeniably go through massive shifts as power dynamics are redressed in response to the massive loss of life and the reduction of the world’s labor force. The Black Death and the after-effects tell a story of societies adapting to changes. While some places were completely abandoned, and whole villages struck down, ultimately, human beings survived and went on with their lives. Some people took advantage of new opportunities and improved their status, while others fought against inevitable change. This is a tale as old as time.

As always, human beings respond in much the same way as they have in the past. In the event of a huge pandemic on a relative scale equaling the Black Death, many people would look to higher authorities for answers, while others would turn to crime and hedonistic activities in an attempt to cope with the depressing reality of their impending doom. As the disease struck down millions, fear would be commonplace, and humans would respond in ways that mimicked how humans responded in the past.